{"id":8812,"date":"2016-12-06T12:29:00","date_gmt":"2016-12-06T12:29:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tenjin.com\/?p=8812"},"modified":"2023-09-20T06:26:23","modified_gmt":"2023-09-20T06:26:23","slug":"ltv-201-a-simple-method-for-forecasting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tenjin.com\/ru\/blog\/ltv-201-a-simple-method-for-forecasting\/","title":{"rendered":"LTV 201: \u041f\u0440\u043e\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0439 \u043c\u0435\u0442\u043e\u0434 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u044f"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\u041f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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\u041d\u043e \u043e\u0431\u044b\u0447\u043d\u043e \u0432\u044b \u0445\u043e\u0442\u0438\u0442\u0435 \u0437\u043d\u0430\u0442\u044c \u0431\u0443\u0434\u0443\u0449\u0435\u0435, \u0430 \u044d\u0442\u043e \u0437\u043d\u0430\u0447\u0438\u0442 \u0441\u0442\u0440\u043e\u0438\u0442\u044c \u0431\u043e\u043b\u0435\u0435 \u0441\u043b\u043e\u0436\u043d\u0430\u044f \u043c\u043e\u0434\u0435\u043b\u044c<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0421\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043e \"\u0441\u043b\u043e\u0436\u043d\u044b\u0439\" \u043c\u043e\u0436\u0435\u0442 \u043e\u0437\u043d\u0430\u0447\u0430\u0442\u044c \u043c\u043d\u043e\u0436\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0432\u043e \u0432\u0435\u0449\u0435\u0439: \u043e\u0442 \u043e\u0442\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0438\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e \u0431\u044b\u0441\u0442\u0440\u044b\u0445 \u0438 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044b\u0445 \u0444\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0443\u043b \u0434\u043e \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0434\u043e\u0432\u044b\u0445 \u0441\u0438\u0441\u0442\u0435\u043c \u043c\u0430\u0448\u0438\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u043e\u0431\u0443\u0447\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f. \u0411\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0448\u0438\u043d\u0441\u0442\u0432\u043e \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0440\u0442\u0430\u043f\u043e\u0432, \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0441\u0442\u0443\u043f\u0430\u044f \u043a \u0438\u0437\u0443\u0447\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044e \u043c\u043e\u0434\u0435\u043b\u0435\u0439 LTV, \u043e\u0431\u043d\u0430\u0440\u0443\u0436\u0438\u0432\u0430\u044e\u0442, \u0447\u0442\u043e \u043b\u0435\u0433\u043a\u043e \u043d\u0430\u0439\u0442\u0438 \u043f\u0440\u0438\u043c\u0435\u0440\u044b, \u043d\u043e \u0442\u0440\u0443\u0434\u043d\u043e \u043d\u0430\u0439\u0442\u0438 \u043e\u0431\u0437\u043e\u0440\u044b \u0438\u043b\u0438 \u0434\u043e\u043a\u0430\u0437\u0430\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0430 \u0442\u043e\u0433\u043e, \u043a\u0430\u043a\u0430\u044f \u043c\u043e\u0434\u0435\u043b\u044c \u043b\u0443\u0447\u0448\u0435.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u041e\u0442\u0441\u0443\u0442\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0438\u0435 \u0441\u0443\u0449\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0439 \u0438\u043d\u0444\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0446\u0438\u0438 \u043e\u0431\u044a\u044f\u0441\u043d\u044f\u0435\u0442\u0441\u044f \u043d\u0435 \u0442\u043e\u043b\u044c\u043a\u043e \u0442\u0435\u043c, \u0447\u0442\u043e \u043a\u0440\u0443\u043f\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u043a\u043e\u043c\u043f\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0438 \u043d\u0435 \u0445\u043e\u0442\u044f\u0442 \u0433\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0440\u0438\u0442\u044c \u043e \u0442\u043e\u043c, \u0447\u0442\u043e \u043e\u043d\u0438 \u0438\u0441\u043f\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0437\u0443\u044e\u0442. \u0414\u0440\u0443\u0433\u0430\u044f \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0447\u0438\u043d\u0430 \u0437\u0430\u043a\u043b\u044e\u0447\u0430\u0435\u0442\u0441\u044f \u0432 \u0442\u043e\u043c, \u0447\u0442\u043e \u043d\u0435 \u0441\u0443\u0449\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0443\u0435\u0442 \"\u043b\u0443\u0447\u0448\u0435\u0439\" \u043f\u0440\u0430\u043a\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0438. \u0415\u0441\u0442\u044c \u0442\u043e\u043b\u044c\u043a\u043e \u0442\u043e, \u0447\u0442\u043e \u0440\u0430\u0431\u043e\u0442\u0430\u0435\u0442 \u0432 \u043a\u043e\u043d\u043a\u0440\u0435\u0442\u043d\u043e\u0439 \u0441\u0438\u0442\u0443\u0430\u0446\u0438\u0438. \u041f\u043e\u044d\u0442\u043e\u043c\u0443 \u0432 \u044d\u0442\u043e\u043c \u043f\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0435, \u043a\u043e\u0442\u043e\u0440\u044b\u0439 \u044f\u0432\u043b\u044f\u0435\u0442\u0441\u044f \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0434\u043e\u043b\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435\u043c \u043d\u0430\u0448\u0435\u0433\u043e \u0412\u0432\u0435\u0434\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u0432 LTV 101<\/a>\u042f \u0440\u0430\u0441\u0441\u043a\u0430\u0436\u0443 \u043e \u0442\u043e\u043c, \u043f\u043e\u0447\u0435\u043c\u0443 \u0432\u0430\u043c \u043c\u043e\u0433\u0443\u0442 \u043f\u043e\u043d\u0430\u0434\u043e\u0431\u0438\u0442\u044c\u0441\u044f \u043c\u043e\u0434\u0435\u043b\u0438 \u0438 \u043a\u0430\u043a \u043d\u0430\u0447\u0430\u0442\u044c \u0441 \u043d\u0443\u043b\u044f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u041a\u0440\u0430\u0442\u043a\u0438\u0439 \u043e\u0431\u0437\u043e\u0440<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LTV 101 \u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u043b\u0430\u0433\u0430\u0435\u0442 \u043d\u0435\u0441\u043a\u043e\u043b\u044c\u043a\u043e \u0442\u0438\u043f\u0438\u0447\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0447\u0438\u043d, \u043f\u043e \u043a\u043e\u0442\u043e\u0440\u044b\u043c \u0440\u0430\u0437\u0440\u0430\u0431\u043e\u0442\u0447\u0438\u043a\u0438 \u0440\u0430\u0441\u0441\u0447\u0438\u0442\u044b\u0432\u0430\u044e\u0442 LTV: \u0440\u0430\u0437\u0443\u043c\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u0440\u0430\u0441\u0445\u043e\u0434\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u0441\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0441\u0442\u0432 \u043d\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u0438\u043e\u0431\u0440\u0435\u0442\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435, \u0438\u043d\u0444\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u043e \u0441\u043e\u0441\u0442\u043e\u044f\u043d\u0438\u0438 \u043f\u0440\u0438\u043b\u043e\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f \u0438 \u043f\u0440\u0438\u043d\u044f\u0442\u0438\u0435 \u0431\u0438\u0437\u043d\u0435\u0441-\u0440\u0435\u0448\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0439.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u041a\u0430\u0436\u0434\u0430\u044f \u0438\u0437 \u044d\u0442\u0438\u0445 \u0446\u0435\u043b\u0435\u0439 \u043c\u043e\u0436\u0435\u0442 \u0431\u044b\u0442\u044c \u0434\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438\u0433\u043d\u0443\u0442\u0430 \u0434\u0430\u0436\u0435 \u0441\u0430\u043c\u044b\u043c \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044b\u043c \u0440\u0430\u0441\u0447\u0435\u0442\u043e\u043c: \u0432\u043e\u0437\u044c\u043c\u0438\u0442\u0435 \u0438\u0437\u0432\u0435\u0441\u0442\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u0434\u043e\u0445\u043e\u0434 \u043a\u043e\u0433\u043e\u0440\u0442\u044b \u0437\u0430 \u043e\u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0435\u043b\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0438\u043e\u0434 \u0438 \u0440\u0430\u0437\u0434\u0435\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0435 \u0435\u0433\u043e \u043d\u0430 \u0432\u0440\u0435\u043c\u044f. \u041d\u0430\u043f\u0440\u0438\u043c\u0435\u0440, \u0435\u0441\u043b\u0438 \u0432\u044b \u0437\u043d\u0430\u0435\u0442\u0435, \u0447\u0442\u043e \u0432\u0430\u0448\u0430 \u043a\u043e\u0433\u043e\u0440\u0442\u0430 18-25-\u043b\u0435\u0442\u043d\u0438\u0445 \u043f\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0437\u043e\u0432\u0430\u0442\u0435\u043b\u0435\u0439 Facebook, \u0441\u043e\u0441\u0442\u043e\u044f\u0449\u0430\u044f \u0438\u0437 1 000 \u0447\u0435\u043b\u043e\u0432\u0435\u043a, \u043f\u043e\u043b\u0443\u0447\u0438\u043b\u0430 \u0434\u043e\u0445\u043e\u0434 \u0432 \u0440\u0430\u0437\u043c\u0435\u0440\u0435 $10 000 \u0437\u0430 90-\u0434\u043d\u0435\u0432\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0438\u043e\u0434, \u0442\u043e \u0443 \u0432\u0430\u0441 \u0435\u0441\u0442\u044c \u0434\u043e\u043a\u0430\u0437\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0439 LTV \u0437\u0430 90 \u0434\u043d\u0435\u0439 \u0432 \u0440\u0430\u0437\u043c\u0435\u0440\u0435 $10 \u043d\u0430 \u043f\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0437\u043e\u0432\u0430\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u042d\u0442\u0430 \u0446\u0438\u0444\u0440\u0430 \u043c\u043e\u0436\u0435\u0442 \u0441\u043a\u0430\u0437\u0430\u0442\u044c \u0432\u0430\u043c, \u0447\u0442\u043e \u043c\u043e\u0436\u043d\u043e \u043f\u0440\u0438\u043e\u0431\u0440\u0435\u0442\u0430\u0442\u044c \u043f\u043e\u0434\u043e\u0431\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u043f\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0437\u043e\u0432\u0430\u0442\u0435\u043b\u0435\u0439 \u0434\u043e $10, \u0447\u0442\u043e \u0443 \u0432\u0430\u0448\u0435\u0433\u043e \u043f\u0440\u0438\u043b\u043e\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f \u0435\u0441\u0442\u044c \u0448\u0430\u043d\u0441\u044b \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0434 \u0438\u043d\u0432\u0435\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0430\u043c\u0438 \u0438 \u0447\u0442\u043e \u0432\u044b \u043c\u043e\u0436\u0435\u0442\u0435 \u043c\u0430\u0441\u0448\u0442\u0430\u0431\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u0442\u044c \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0432\u043b\u0435\u0447\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u043f\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0437\u043e\u0432\u0430\u0442\u0435\u043b\u0435\u0439. \u041d\u043e \u043e\u043d\u043e \u043d\u0435 \u0433\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0440\u0438\u0442 \u0432\u0430\u043c \u043e \u0431\u0443\u0434\u0443\u0449\u0435\u043c \u0434\u0440\u0443\u0433\u0438\u0445 \u043a\u043e\u0433\u043e\u0440\u0442.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0410 \u0447\u0442\u043e, \u0435\u0441\u043b\u0438 \u0434\u043e\u0445\u043e\u0434 \u0441\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0430\u0432\u0438\u043b \u0432\u0441\u0435\u0433\u043e $1 000? \u041d\u0435\u0432\u043e\u0437\u043c\u043e\u0436\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c \u0441\u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u0442\u044c \u0431\u0443\u0434\u0443\u0449\u0438\u0439 LTV \u043e\u0437\u043d\u0430\u0447\u0430\u0435\u0442 \u0443\u043f\u0443\u0449\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u0448\u0430\u043d\u0441\u044b \u0438\u0437\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0442\u044c \u0441\u0438\u0442\u0443\u0430\u0446\u0438\u044e, \u043a\u043e\u0433\u0434\u0430 \u044d\u0442\u043e \u043d\u0435\u043e\u0431\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0438\u043c\u043e, \u0438\u043b\u0438 \u0443\u0432\u0435\u0440\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e \u0434\u0432\u0438\u0433\u0430\u0442\u044c\u0441\u044f \u0432\u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0434, \u043a\u043e\u0433\u0434\u0430 \u0432\u0441\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0437\u043d\u0430\u043a\u0438 \u043f\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0436\u0438\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u041e\u0434\u0438\u043d \u0438\u0437 \u043c\u0435\u0442\u043e\u0434\u043e\u0432 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u044f LTV<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0412\u044b \u043c\u043e\u0436\u0435\u0442\u0435 \u043d\u0430\u0447\u0430\u0442\u044c \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u0442\u044c LTV \u0434\u043b\u044f \u0434\u043e\u043f\u043e\u043b\u043d\u0438\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u043a\u043e\u0433\u043e\u0440\u0442 \u0441 \u043f\u043e\u043c\u043e\u0449\u044c\u044e \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0439 \u0438\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0439 \u043c\u043e\u0434\u0435\u043b\u0438, \u043a\u043e\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0443\u044e \u043c\u044b \u043d\u0430\u0437\u044b\u0432\u0430\u0435\u043c \"\u041c\u0435\u0442\u043e\u0434 \u0441\u043e\u043e\u0442\u043d\u043e\u0448\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f\".<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0414\u043b\u044f \u0438\u0441\u043f\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0437\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u044f \u044d\u0442\u043e\u0433\u043e \u043c\u0435\u0442\u043e\u0434\u0430 \u0432\u0430\u043c \u043f\u043e\u043d\u0430\u0434\u043e\u0431\u044f\u0442\u0441\u044f \u0434\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u0437\u0430 90 \u0434\u043d\u0435\u0439 \u043a\u0430\u043a \u043c\u0438\u043d\u0438\u043c\u0443\u043c \u043e\u0434\u043d\u043e\u0439 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0448\u043b\u043e\u0439 \u043a\u043e\u0433\u043e\u0440\u0442\u044b. \u041d\u0430 \u043e\u0441\u043d\u043e\u0432\u0435 \u0434\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u043e \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0448\u043b\u043e\u0439 \u043a\u043e\u0433\u043e\u0440\u0442\u0435 \u0432\u044b \u0441\u043c\u043e\u0436\u0435\u0442\u0435 \u043e\u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0435\u043b\u0438\u0442\u044c \u0442\u0435\u043c\u043f \u0440\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0430, \u043a\u043e\u0442\u043e\u0440\u044b\u0439 \u043c\u043e\u0436\u043d\u043e \u043f\u0440\u0438\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0442\u044c \u043a \u0431\u0443\u0434\u0443\u0449\u0438\u043c \u043a\u043e\u0433\u043e\u0440\u0442\u0430\u043c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0412\u043e\u0442 \u043f\u043e\u0448\u0430\u0433\u043e\u0432\u044b\u0439 \u043c\u0435\u0442\u043e\u0434 \u0438\u0441\u043f\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0437\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u044f \u043c\u0435\u0442\u043e\u0434\u0430 \u0441\u043e\u043e\u0442\u043d\u043e\u0448\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0439:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
    1. \u0414\u043b\u044f \u0441\u0432\u043e\u0435\u0439 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0448\u043b\u043e\u0439 \u043a\u043e\u0433\u043e\u0440\u0442\u044b \u043d\u0430\u0439\u0434\u0438\u0442\u0435 \u0434\u043e\u043b\u043b\u0430\u0440\u043e\u0432\u044b\u0435 \u0441\u0443\u043c\u043c\u044b 7-\u0434\u043d\u0435\u0432\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0438 90-\u0434\u043d\u0435\u0432\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e LTV (\u043d\u0430\u043f\u0440\u0438\u043c\u0435\u0440, $1.50 \u0432 7-\u0439 \u0434\u0435\u043d\u044c \u0438 $6 \u0432 90-\u0439 \u0434\u0435\u043d\u044c).<\/li><\/ol>
      1. \u0420\u0430\u0437\u0434\u0435\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0435 \u0441\u0443\u043c\u043c\u0443 \u0437\u0430 90 \u0434\u043d\u0435\u0439 \u043d\u0430 \u0441\u0443\u043c\u043c\u0443 \u0437\u0430 7 \u0434\u043d\u0435\u0439 (6 \/ 1,50 = 4)<\/li><\/ol>
        1. \u041d\u0430\u0439\u0434\u0438\u0442\u0435 7-\u0434\u043d\u0435\u0432\u043d\u0443\u044e \u0441\u0443\u043c\u043c\u0443 LTV \u0434\u043b\u044f \u043d\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0439 \u043a\u043e\u0433\u043e\u0440\u0442\u044b (\u043d\u0430\u043f\u0440\u0438\u043c\u0435\u0440, $2).<\/li><\/ol>\n
            \n
          1. \u0423\u043c\u043d\u043e\u0436\u044c\u0442\u0435 LTV \u043d\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0439 \u043a\u043e\u0433\u043e\u0440\u0442\u044b $2 \u043d\u0430 \u043a\u043e\u044d\u0444\u0444\u0438\u0446\u0438\u0435\u043d\u0442 4 \u0438\u0441\u0445\u043e\u0434\u043d\u043e\u0439 \u043a\u043e\u0433\u043e\u0440\u0442\u044b<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

            \u0412 \u044d\u0442\u043e\u043c \u0441\u0446\u0435\u043d\u0430\u0440\u0438\u0438 \u043e\u0436\u0438\u0434\u0430\u0435\u043c\u044b\u0439 90-\u0434\u043d\u0435\u0432\u043d\u044b\u0439 LTV \u043d\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0439 \u043a\u043e\u0433\u043e\u0440\u0442\u044b \u0441\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0430\u0432\u043b\u044f\u0435\u0442 $8.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \u0421 \u0442\u0435\u0447\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435\u043c \u0432\u0440\u0435\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0438 \u0438 \u0441\u0431\u043e\u0440\u043e\u043c \u0431\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0448\u0435\u0433\u043e \u043a\u043e\u043b\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0430 \u0434\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u043f\u043e \u043a\u043e\u0433\u043e\u0440\u0442\u0430\u043c \u0432\u0430\u0448\u0438 \u043a\u043e\u044d\u0444\u0444\u0438\u0446\u0438\u0435\u043d\u0442\u044b \u0431\u0443\u0434\u0443\u0442 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u043d\u043e\u0432\u0438\u0442\u044c\u0441\u044f \u0432\u0441\u0435 \u0431\u043e\u043b\u0435\u0435 \u0442\u043e\u0447\u043d\u044b\u043c\u0438, \u043f\u043e\u044d\u0442\u043e\u043c\u0443 \u044d\u0442\u043e\u0442 \u043c\u0435\u0442\u043e\u0434 \u0431\u0443\u0434\u0435\u0442 \u043e\u0441\u0442\u0430\u0432\u0430\u0442\u044c\u0441\u044f \u043f\u043e\u043b\u0435\u0437\u043d\u044b\u043c \u0440\u0435\u0437\u0435\u0440\u0432\u043d\u044b\u043c \u0432\u0430\u0440\u0438\u0430\u043d\u0442\u043e\u043c \u0434\u0430\u0436\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u0438 \u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0447\u0438\u0438 \u0431\u043e\u043b\u0435\u0435 \u0441\u043b\u043e\u0436\u043d\u043e\u0439 \u0444\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0443\u043b\u044b, \u043a\u0430\u043a \u0434\u043b\u044f \u0431\u044b\u0441\u0442\u0440\u044b\u0445 \u0440\u0430\u0441\u0447\u0435\u0442\u043e\u0432 \"\u043d\u0430 \u0433\u043b\u0430\u0437\u043e\u043a\", \u0442\u0430\u043a \u0438 \u0434\u043b\u044f \u0441\u0440\u0430\u0432\u043d\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f \u0441 \u0434\u0440\u0443\u0433\u0438\u043c\u0438 \u0432\u0430\u0448\u0438\u043c\u0438 \u0440\u0430\u0441\u0447\u0435\u0442\u0430\u043c\u0438.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \u0414\u0430\u043b\u0435\u0435: \u0411\u043e\u043b\u0435\u0435 \u0441\u043b\u043e\u0436\u043d\u0430\u044f \u043c\u043e\u0434\u0435\u043b\u044c<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \u0421\u043b\u0435\u0434\u0443\u044e\u0449\u0438\u043c \u0448\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043c \u043f\u043e\u0441\u043b\u0435 \u0438\u0437\u0443\u0447\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f \u043c\u0435\u0442\u043e\u0434\u0430 \u0441\u043e\u043e\u0442\u043d\u043e\u0448\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0439 \u0431\u0443\u0434\u0435\u0442 \u043f\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0440\u043e\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u0441\u0432\u043e\u0435\u0439 \u043f\u043e\u043b\u043d\u043e\u0439 \u0444\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0443\u043b\u044b, \u043a\u043e\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0430\u044f \u043c\u043e\u0436\u0435\u0442 \u0431\u044b\u0442\u044c \u043e\u0441\u043d\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0430 \u043d\u0430 \u0442\u0430\u043a\u0438\u0445 \u043f\u0440\u0438\u043d\u0446\u0438\u043f\u0430\u0445, \u043a\u0430\u043a \u043a\u0440\u0438\u0432\u0430\u044f \u043c\u043e\u0449\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u0438\u043b\u0438 \u0434\u0430\u0436\u0435 \u043c\u0430\u0448\u0438\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u043e\u0431\u0443\u0447\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435. \u0412 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0446\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0435 \u0440\u0430\u0431\u043e\u0442\u044b \u043d\u0430\u0434 \u044d\u0442\u043e\u0439 \u0446\u0435\u043b\u044c\u044e \u0441\u0442\u043e\u0438\u0442 \u043f\u043e\u043c\u043d\u0438\u0442\u044c \u043e \u0434\u0432\u0443\u0445 \u0434\u0440\u0443\u0433\u0438\u0445 \u0444\u0430\u043a\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0430\u0445, \u043a\u043e\u0442\u043e\u0440\u044b\u0435 \u043c\u043e\u0433\u0443\u0442 \u0432\u043b\u0438\u044f\u0442\u044c \u043d\u0430 LTV:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              \n
              • \u0420\u0435\u043a\u043b\u0430\u043c\u0430<\/strong> - \u0415\u0441\u043b\u0438 \u0432\u044b \u0440\u0430\u0437\u043c\u0435\u0449\u0430\u0435\u0442\u0435 \u0440\u0435\u043a\u043b\u0430\u043c\u0443 \u0432 \u0441\u0432\u043e\u0435\u043c \u043f\u0440\u0438\u043b\u043e\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0438, \u0432\u0430\u043c \u043d\u0443\u0436\u043d\u043e \u0431\u0443\u0434\u0435\u0442 \u0434\u043e\u0431\u0430\u0432\u0438\u0442\u044c \u0434\u043e\u0445\u043e\u0434 \u043a \u0440\u0430\u0441\u0447\u0435\u0442\u0430\u043c LTV.<\/li><\/ul>\n
                  \n
                • \u0412\u0438\u0440\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c<\/strong> - \u0412\u0438\u0440\u0443\u0441\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0433\u043b\u0430\u0448\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f \u0442\u0430\u043a\u0436\u0435 \u043c\u043e\u0433\u0443\u0442 \u0431\u044b\u0442\u044c \u0434\u043e\u0431\u0430\u0432\u043b\u0435\u043d\u044b \u043a LTV \u0432 \u043f\u0440\u0438\u043b\u043e\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f\u0445 \u0441 \u0438\u0437\u043c\u0435\u0440\u044f\u0435\u043c\u043e\u0439 \u0432\u0438\u0440\u0443\u0441\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c\u044e: \u043a\u043e\u0433\u0434\u0430 \u043e\u0434\u0438\u043d \u043f\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0437\u043e\u0432\u0430\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0433\u043b\u0430\u0448\u0430\u0435\u0442 \u0434\u0440\u0443\u0433\u043e\u0433\u043e, \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0433\u043b\u0430\u0441\u0438\u0432\u0448\u0438\u0439 \u0444\u0430\u043a\u0442\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0438 \u043d\u0435\u0441\u0435\u0442 \u043e\u0442\u0432\u0435\u0442\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c \u0437\u0430 \u0431\u0443\u0434\u0443\u0449\u0438\u0435 \u0440\u0430\u0441\u0445\u043e\u0434\u044b \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0433\u043b\u0430\u0448\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e. \u0420\u0430\u0441\u0441\u0447\u0438\u0442\u0430\u0439\u0442\u0435 \u043a\u043e\u044d\u0444\u0444\u0438\u0446\u0438\u0435\u043d\u0442 K (\u043d\u0430\u043f\u0440\u0438\u043c\u0435\u0440, 0,1), \u0443\u043c\u043d\u043e\u0436\u044c\u0442\u0435 \u0435\u0433\u043e \u043d\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u0438\u0440\u0443\u0435\u043c\u044b\u0439 LTV \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0433\u043b\u0430\u0448\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e (\u043d\u0430\u043f\u0440\u0438\u043c\u0435\u0440, $5) \u0438 \u0434\u043e\u0431\u0430\u0432\u044c\u0442\u0435 \u0440\u0435\u0437\u0443\u043b\u044c\u0442\u0430\u0442 \u043a LTV \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0433\u043b\u0430\u0441\u0438\u0432\u0448\u0435\u0433\u043e (0,1 * $5 = $0,50 \u0434\u043e\u043f\u043e\u043b\u043d\u0438\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e LTV).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

                  \u0421\u043e\u0431\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u0438\u043d\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u044b Tenjin \u0443\u0447\u0438\u0442\u044b\u0432\u0430\u044e\u0442 \u0440\u0435\u043a\u043b\u0430\u043c\u0443 \u0438 \u0432\u0438\u0440\u0443\u0441\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c \u0443\u0436\u0435 \u043d\u0430 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0434\u0438\u0438 \u0440\u0430\u0437\u0440\u0430\u0431\u043e\u0442\u043a\u0438.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                  \u0422\u043e, \u0447\u0442\u043e \u043f\u043e\u0441\u043b\u0435\u0434\u0443\u0435\u0442 \u0437\u0430 \u044d\u0442\u0438\u043c, \u0431\u0443\u0434\u0435\u0442 \u043d\u0435\u043c\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0441\u043b\u043e\u0436\u043d\u0435\u0435 - \u043d\u043e \u0432\u043f\u043e\u043b\u043d\u0435 \u0432\u044b\u043f\u043e\u043b\u043d\u0438\u043c\u043e! \u0421\u043b\u0435\u0434\u0438\u0442\u0435 \u0437\u0430 \u043d\u0430\u0448\u0438\u043c \u0442\u0440\u0435\u0442\u044c\u0438\u043c \u043f\u043e\u0441\u0442\u043e\u043c \u0432 \u044d\u0442\u043e\u0439 \u0441\u0435\u0440\u0438\u0438, \u0432 \u043a\u043e\u0442\u043e\u0440\u043e\u043c \u043c\u044b \u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0441\u0442\u0430\u0432\u0438\u043c \u043d\u0435\u0441\u043a\u043e\u043b\u044c\u043a\u043e \u043c\u043e\u0434\u0435\u043b\u0435\u0439, \u043a\u043e\u0442\u043e\u0440\u044b\u0435 Tenjin \u0434\u0435\u0440\u0436\u0438\u0442 \u043d\u0430\u0433\u043e\u0442\u043e\u0432\u0435 \u0434\u043b\u044f LTV.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                  Lifetime value is tricky. The simplest \u2014 and also the most reliable \u2014 LTV calculations tell you what happened in the past: segment X made Y dollars per user. In a perfect world, that would be enough. But usually, you\u2019ll want to know the future, and that means building a more complex model. \u201cComplex\u201d can mean a lot…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":8794,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8812","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-best-practices"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLTV 201: A Simple Method for Forecasting - Tenjin<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/tenjin.com\/ru\/blog\/ltv-201-a-simple-method-for-forecasting\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ru_RU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"LTV 201: A Simple Method for Forecasting - Tenjin\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Lifetime value is tricky. The simplest \u2014 and also the most reliable \u2014 LTV calculations tell you what happened in the past: segment X made Y dollars per user. In a perfect world, that would be enough. 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