{"id":8812,"date":"2016-12-06T12:29:00","date_gmt":"2016-12-06T12:29:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tenjin.com\/?p=8812"},"modified":"2026-04-14T08:03:42","modified_gmt":"2026-04-14T08:03:42","slug":"ltv-201-a-simple-method-for-forecasting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tenjin.com\/vi\/blog\/ltv-201-a-simple-method-for-forecasting\/","title":{"rendered":"LTV 201: M\u1ed9t ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"D\u1ef1<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb tr\u1ecdn \u0111\u1eddi l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p. C\u00e1ch t\u00ednh LTV \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n nh\u1ea5t \u2014 v\u00e0 c\u0169ng l\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady nh\u1ea5t \u2014<\/a> T\u00f4i s\u1ebd k\u1ec3 cho b\u1ea1n nghe \u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9: segment X ki\u1ebfm \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c Y \u0111\u00f4 la m\u1ed7i ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00f9ng. Trong m\u1ed9t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi l\u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng, \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ee7.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nh\u01b0ng th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng, b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd mu\u1ed1n bi\u1ebft t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, v\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 ph\u1ea3i x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng. m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p h\u01a1n<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p\" c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u ngh\u0129a, t\u1eeb c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n v\u00e0 d\u1ec5 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng h\u1ecdc m\u00e1y ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn. \u0110i\u1ec1u m\u00e0 h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c startup ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n ra khi b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh LTV l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm c\u00e1c v\u00ed d\u1ee5 th\u00ec d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng, nh\u01b0ng vi\u1ec7c t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 ho\u1eb7c b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng v\u1ec1 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh n\u00e0o l\u00e0 t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t th\u00ec l\u1ea1i kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u1ef1 thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t th\u00f4ng tin c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 do c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty l\u1edbn kh\u00f4ng mu\u1ed1n chia s\u1ebb v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng g\u00ec h\u1ecd s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng. L\u00fd do kh\u00e1c l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 \"ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t\". Ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng g\u00ec hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 trong m\u1ed9t t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3. V\u00ec v\u1eady, trong b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft n\u00e0y, ph\u1ea7n ti\u1ebfp theo c\u1ee7a b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft tr\u01b0\u1edbc, LTV 101 Gi\u1edbi thi\u1ec7u<\/a>T\u00f4i s\u1ebd n\u00f3i v\u1ec1 l\u00fd do t\u1ea1i sao b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u1ea7n c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh v\u00e0 c\u00e1ch b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u00f3m t\u1eaft nhanh<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LTV 101 \u0111\u00e3 n\u00eau ra m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 l\u00fd do \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh m\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n t\u00ednh to\u00e1n LTV: s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch qu\u1ea3ng c\u00e1o m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3, theo d\u00f5i t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng s\u1ee9c kh\u1ecfe c\u1ee7a \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0a ra c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh kinh doanh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u1ed7i m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch trong s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng ngay c\u1ea3 b\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t ph\u00e9p t\u00ednh \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n: l\u1ea5y doanh thu \u0111\u00e3 bi\u1ebft c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t nh\u00f3m \u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng trong m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian, sau \u0111\u00f3 chia cho th\u1eddi gian. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, n\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n bi\u1ebft nh\u00f3m tu\u1ed5i 18-25 tr\u00ean Facebook c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh, g\u1ed3m 1.000 ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00f9ng, \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea1o ra doanh thu $10.000 trong kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian 90 ng\u00e0y, th\u00ec b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb tr\u1ecdn \u0111\u1eddi (LTV) trong 90 ng\u00e0y l\u00e0 $10 cho m\u1ed7i ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00f9ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Con s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 cho b\u1ea1n bi\u1ebft r\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c thu h\u00fat ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00f9ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 l\u00ean \u0111\u1ebfn $10 l\u00e0 ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c; r\u1eb1ng \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i thu h\u00fat nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0; v\u00e0 r\u1eb1ng b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng quy m\u00f4 thu h\u00fat ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00f9ng. Tuy nhi\u00ean, n\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng cho b\u1ea1n bi\u1ebft v\u1ec1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00f9ng kh\u00e1c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00e0 n\u1ebfu doanh thu ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 $1,000 th\u00ec sao? Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb tr\u1ecdn \u0111\u1eddi (LTV) trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai \u0111\u1ed3ng ngh\u0129a v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c b\u1ecf l\u1ee1 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c khi c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft, ho\u1eb7c kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 t\u1ef1 tin ti\u1ebfn l\u00ean khi m\u1ecdi d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ec1u t\u00edch c\u1ef1c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u1ed9t ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n LTV<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

B\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n LTV cho c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m \u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1ed5 sung b\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n m\u00e0 ch\u00fang t\u00f4i g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 \"Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7\".<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110\u1ec3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p n\u00e0y, b\u1ea1n c\u1ea7n c\u00f3 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u trong 90 ng\u00e0y t\u1eeb \u00edt nh\u1ea5t m\u1ed9t nh\u00f3m \u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9. D\u1ef1a tr\u00ean d\u1eef li\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a nh\u00f3m \u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9 n\u00e0y, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng cho c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m \u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p t\u1eebng b\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ec3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
    1. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nh\u00f3m kh\u00e1ch h\u00e0ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n, h\u00e3y t\u00ecm c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb ti\u1ec1n m\u1eb7t c\u1ee7a LTV trong 7 ng\u00e0y v\u00e0 90 ng\u00e0y (v\u00ed d\u1ee5: $1.50 v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y th\u1ee9 7 v\u00e0 $6 v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y th\u1ee9 90).<\/li><\/ol>
      1. Chia s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n trong 90 ng\u00e0y cho s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n trong 7 ng\u00e0y (6 \/ 1,50 = 4)<\/li><\/ol>
        1. T\u00ednh to\u00e1n gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb LTV trong 7 ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t nh\u00f3m m\u1edbi (v\u00ed d\u1ee5: $2)<\/li><\/ol>\n
            \n
          1. Nh\u00e2n gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb tr\u1ecdn \u0111\u1eddi (LTV) c\u1ee7a nh\u00f3m m\u1edbi $2 v\u1edbi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 4 c\u1ee7a nh\u00f3m ban \u0111\u1ea7u.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

            Trong t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng n\u00e0y, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 LTV d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn trong 90 ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a nh\u00f3m m\u1edbi l\u00e0 $8.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            C\u00e1c t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd tr\u1edf n\u00ean ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01a1n theo th\u1eddi gian v\u00e0 khi c\u00f3 th\u00eam d\u1eef li\u1ec7u t\u1eeb c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m \u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thu th\u1eadp, do \u0111\u00f3 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p n\u00e0y v\u1eabn s\u1ebd l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 d\u1ef1 ph\u00f2ng h\u1eefu \u00edch ngay c\u1ea3 khi c\u00f3 c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p h\u01a1n, c\u1ea3 cho c\u00e1c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n nhanh ch\u00f3ng v\u00e0 so s\u00e1nh v\u1edbi c\u00e1c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n kh\u00e1c c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Ti\u1ebfp theo: M\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p h\u01a1n<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            B\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u1ebfp theo sau khi h\u1ecdc ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u00e0 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c ho\u00e0n ch\u1ec9nh c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc nh\u01b0 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong c\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t ho\u1eb7c th\u1eadm ch\u00ed l\u00e0 h\u1ecdc m\u00e1y. Trong qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1edbi m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau n\u00e0y, b\u1ea1n n\u00ean l\u01b0u \u00fd hai y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn LTV:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              \n
              • Qu\u1ea3ng c\u00e1o<\/strong> \u2014 N\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n ch\u1ea1y qu\u1ea3ng c\u00e1o trong \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh, b\u1ea1n c\u1ea7n th\u00eam doanh thu t\u1eeb qu\u1ea3ng c\u00e1o v\u00e0o c\u00e1c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n LTV c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh.<\/li><\/ul>\n
                  \n
                • T\u00ednh lan truy\u1ec1n<\/strong> \u2014 M\u1eddi b\u1ea1n b\u00e8 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00eam v\u00e0o LTV trong c\u00e1c \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng c\u00f3 t\u00ednh lan truy\u1ec1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng: khi m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00f9ng m\u1eddi ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00e1c, ng\u01b0\u1eddi m\u1eddi s\u1ebd ch\u1ecbu tr\u00e1ch nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ec1 chi ti\u00eau t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1eddi. T\u00ednh to\u00e1n h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 K (v\u00ed d\u1ee5: 0.1), nh\u00e2n n\u00f3 v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb LTV d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1eddi (v\u00ed d\u1ee5: $5), v\u00e0 c\u1ed9ng k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 v\u00e0o LTV c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi m\u1eddi (0.1 * $5 = $0.50 LTV b\u1ed5 sung).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

                  C\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 c\u1ee7a Tenjin \u0111\u00e3 t\u00edch h\u1ee3p s\u1eb5n kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd qu\u1ea3ng c\u00e1o v\u00e0 t\u00ednh lan truy\u1ec1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                  \u0110i\u1ec1u ti\u1ebfp theo s\u1ebd kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t ch\u00fat \u2014 nh\u01b0ng v\u1eabn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c! H\u00e3y theo d\u00f5i b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft th\u1ee9 ba trong series c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i, trong \u0111\u00f3 ch\u00fang t\u00f4i s\u1ebd gi\u1edbi thi\u1ec7u m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh m\u00e0 Tenjin lu\u00f4n s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng cho LTV.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                  Lifetime value is tricky. The simplest \u2014 and also the most reliable \u2014 LTV calculations tell you what happened in the past: segment X made Y dollars per user. In a perfect world, that would be enough. But usually, you\u2019ll want to know the future, and that means building a more complex model. \u201cComplex\u201d can mean a lot…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":8794,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,91],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8812","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-best-practices","category-metrics"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLTV 201 | Tenjin<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Learn a simple method for forecasting lifetime value (LTV) to improve user acquisition, budgeting, and long-term growth.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/tenjin.com\/vi\/blog\/ltv-201-a-simple-method-for-forecasting\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" 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