{"id":8812,"date":"2016-12-06T12:29:00","date_gmt":"2016-12-06T12:29:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tenjin.com\/?p=8812"},"modified":"2026-04-14T08:03:42","modified_gmt":"2026-04-14T08:03:42","slug":"ltv-201-a-simple-method-for-forecasting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tenjin.com\/zh\/blog\/ltv-201-a-simple-method-for-forecasting\/","title":{"rendered":"LTV 201\uff1a\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u65b9\u6cd5"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"LTV\u9884\u6d4b\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u7ec8\u8eab\u4ef7\u503c\u662f\u4e2a\u96be\u9898\u3002\u5bff\u547d\u503c \u6700\u7b80\u5355\u4e5f\u662f\u6700\u53ef\u9760\u7684 LTV \u8ba1\u7b97\u65b9\u6cd5<\/a> \u544a\u8bc9\u4f60\u8fc7\u53bb\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1aX \u5206\u90e8\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7528\u6237\u8d5a\u4e86 Y \u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8c\u7f8e\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u91cc\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u8db3\u591f\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4f46\u901a\u5e38\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u60a8\u5e0c\u671b\u4e86\u89e3\u672a\u6765\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u610f\u5473\u7740\u8981\u5efa\u7acb \u66f4\u590d\u6742\u7684\u6a21\u578b<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\u590d\u6742 \"\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u542b\u4e49\uff0c\u4ece\u76f8\u5bf9\u5feb\u901f\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\u5230\u5c16\u7aef\u7684\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u8bbe\u7f6e\uff0c\u4e0d\u4e00\u800c\u8db3\u3002\u5927\u591a\u6570\u521d\u521b\u516c\u53f8\u5728\u5f00\u59cb\u7814\u7a76 LTV \u6a21\u578b\u65f6\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u627e\u5230\u8303\u4f8b\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\uff0c\u4f46\u5f88\u96be\u627e\u5230\u5173\u4e8e\u54ea\u79cd\u6a21\u578b\u6700\u597d\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u6216\u8bc1\u636e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5b9e\u8d28\u6027\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5927\u516c\u53f8\u4e0d\u613f\u610f\u8c08\u8bba\u5b83\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u6ca1\u6709 \"\u6700\u4f73 \"\u505a\u6cd5\u3002\u53ea\u6709\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u6709\u6548\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u662f\u6211\u4eec LTV 101 \u7b80\u4ecb<\/a>\u4e0b\u9762\u6211\u5c06\u8c08\u8c08\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u9700\u8981\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5982\u4f55\u4ece\u96f6\u5f00\u59cb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7b80\u8981\u56de\u987e<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LTV 101 \u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5f00\u53d1\u4eba\u5458\u8ba1\u7b97 LTV \u7684\u51e0\u4e2a\u5178\u578b\u539f\u56e0\uff1a\u660e\u667a\u5730\u4f7f\u7528\u6536\u8d2d\u8d44\u91d1\u3001\u968f\u65f6\u4e86\u89e3\u5e94\u7528\u7a0b\u5e8f\u7684\u5065\u5eb7\u72b6\u51b5\u4ee5\u53ca\u505a\u51fa\u5546\u4e1a\u51b3\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u6700\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u4e5f\u80fd\u6ee1\u8db3\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6bcf\u4e2a\u76ee\u7684\uff1a\u5c06\u4e00\u4e2a\u7fa4\u7ec4\u5728\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u7684\u5df2\u77e5\u6536\u5165\u9664\u4ee5\u65f6\u95f4\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e3e\u4f8b\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u77e5\u9053\u4f60\u7684 Facebook 18-25 \u5c81\u7528\u6237\u7fa4\uff08\u7531 1000 \u540d\u7528\u6237\u7ec4\u6210\uff09\u5728 90 \u5929\u5185\u7684\u6536\u5165\u4e3a $10,000\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4f60\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc1\u660e\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7528\u6237 90 \u5929\u7684 LTV \u4e3a $10\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u544a\u8bc9\u4f60\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728 $10 \u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u83b7\u53d6\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7528\u6237\uff1b\u4f60\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u6709\u673a\u4f1a\u83b7\u5f97\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u9752\u7750\uff1b\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u6269\u5927\u7528\u6237\u83b7\u53d6\u89c4\u6a21\u3002\u4f46\u5b83\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u544a\u8bc9\u60a8\u5176\u4ed6\u7ec4\u7fa4\u7684\u672a\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5982\u679c\u6536\u5165\u53ea\u6709 $1,000 \u5462\uff1f\u65e0\u6cd5\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u56de\u62a5\u7387\uff0c\u5c31\u7b49\u4e8e\u9519\u5931\u4e86\u5728\u5fc5\u8981\u65f6\u8fdb\u884c\u8c03\u6574\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u5728\u6240\u6709\u8ff9\u8c61\u90fd\u5411\u597d\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5931\u53bb\u4e86\u81ea\u4fe1\u5730\u5411\u524d\u51b2\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u9884\u6d4b LTV \u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u60a8\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528\u6211\u4eec\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a \"\u6bd4\u7387\u6cd5 \"\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u5386\u53f2\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5f00\u59cb\u9884\u6d4b\u5176\u4ed6\u7ec4\u7fa4\u7684 LTV\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8981\u4f7f\u7528\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u60a8\u9700\u8981\u81f3\u5c11\u4e00\u4e2a\u8fc7\u53bb\u7ec4\u7fa4\u7684 90 \u5929\u6570\u636e\u3002\u6839\u636e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8fc7\u53bb\u7ec4\u7fa4\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u60a8\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u627e\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ef\u7528\u4e8e\u672a\u6765\u7ec4\u7fa4\u7684\u589e\u957f\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e0b\u9762\u662f\u4f7f\u7528\u6bd4\u4f8b\u6cd5\u7684\u6b65\u9aa4\u65b9\u6cd5\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
    1. \u5bf9\u4e8e\u60a8\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u7ec4\u7fa4\uff0c\u8bf7\u627e\u51fa 7 \u5929\u548c 90 \u5929 LTV \u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u91d1\u989d\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u7b2c 7 \u5929\u4e3a $1.50\uff0c\u7b2c 90 \u5929\u4e3a $6\uff09<\/li><\/ol>
      1. \u7528 90 \u5929\u7684\u91d1\u989d\u9664\u4ee5 7 \u5929\u7684\u91d1\u989d\uff086 \/ 1.50 = 4\uff09<\/li><\/ol>
        1. \u67e5\u627e\u65b0\u7ec4\u7fa4\uff08\u5982 $2\uff09\u7684 7 \u5929 LTV \u91d1\u989d<\/li><\/ol>\n
            \n
          1. \u7528\u65b0\u7ec4\u522b $2 \u7684 LTV \u4e58\u4ee5\u539f\u7ec4\u522b 4 \u7684\u6bd4\u7387<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

            \u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u60a8\u5bf9\u65b0\u7ec4\u7fa4\u7684\u9884\u671f 90 \u5929 LTV \u4e3a $8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\u548c\u961f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u7684\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4f60\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u4f1a\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u7cbe\u786e\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6709\u4e86\u66f4\u590d\u6742\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u6709\u7528\u7684\u5907\u7528\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u65e2\u53ef\u7528\u4e8e\u5feb\u901f\u7684\u5c01\u5e95\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5176\u4ed6\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u57fa\u51c6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\uff1a\u66f4\u590d\u6742\u7684\u6a21\u578b<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \u5b66\u4e60\u4e86\u6bd4\u7387\u6cd5\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\u5c31\u662f\u5efa\u7acb\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5b8c\u6574\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u516c\u5f0f\u53ef\u4ee5\u57fa\u4e8e\u52a8\u529b\u66f2\u7ebf\u751a\u81f3\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u7b49\u539f\u7406\u3002\u5728\u52aa\u529b\u5b9e\u73b0\u8fd9\u4e00\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u5230 LTV\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              \n
              • \u5e7f\u544a<\/strong> - \u5982\u679c\u60a8\u5728\u5e94\u7528\u7a0b\u5e8f\u4e2d\u8fd0\u884c\u5e7f\u544a\uff0c\u5219\u9700\u8981\u5728\u8ba1\u7b97 LTV \u65f6\u6dfb\u52a0\u6536\u5165\u3002<\/li><\/ul>\n
                  \n
                • \u75c5\u6bd2\u6027<\/strong> - \u5728\u5177\u6709\u53ef\u8861\u91cf\u75c5\u6bd2\u6027\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u7a0b\u5e8f\u4e2d\uff0c\u75c5\u6bd2\u5f0f\u9080\u8bf7\u4e5f\u53ef\u8ba1\u5165 LTV\uff1a\u5f53\u4e00\u4e2a\u7528\u6237\u9080\u8bf7\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u7528\u6237\u65f6\uff0c\u9080\u8bf7\u8005\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u8981\u5bf9\u88ab\u9080\u8bf7\u8005\u7684\u672a\u6765\u6d88\u8d39\u8d1f\u8d23\u3002\u8ba1\u7b97 K \u56e0\u5b50\uff08\u4f8b\u5982 0.1\uff09\uff0c\u4e58\u4ee5\u88ab\u9080\u8bf7\u8005\u7684\u9884\u8ba1 LTV\uff08\u4f8b\u5982 $5\uff09\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5c06\u7ed3\u679c\u52a0\u5230\u9080\u8bf7\u8005\u7684 LTV \u4e0a\uff080.1 * $5 = $0.50 \u989d\u5916 LTV\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

                  \u5929\u795e\u516c\u53f8\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u5728\u5f00\u7bb1\u5373\u7528\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u786e\u5b9e\u4f1a\u8003\u8651\u5e7f\u544a\u548c\u75c5\u6bd2\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                  \u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u5c31\u6bd4\u8f83\u56f0\u96be\u4e86--\u4f46\u8fd8\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e94\u4ed8\u7684\uff01\u656c\u8bf7\u671f\u5f85\u672c\u7cfb\u5217\u7684\u7b2c\u4e09\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u4ecb\u7ecd\u5929\u795e\u4e3a LTV \u51c6\u5907\u7684\u51e0\u6b3e\u673a\u578b\u3002<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                  Lifetime value is tricky. The simplest \u2014 and also the most reliable \u2014 LTV calculations tell you what happened in the past: segment X made Y dollars per user. In a perfect world, that would be enough. But usually, you\u2019ll want to know the future, and that means building a more complex model. \u201cComplex\u201d can mean a lot…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":8794,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,91],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8812","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-best-practices","category-metrics"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLTV 201: A Simple Method for Forecasting | Tenjin<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/tenjin.com\/zh\/blog\/ltv-201-a-simple-method-for-forecasting\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"LTV 201: A Simple Method for Forecasting | Tenjin\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Lifetime value is tricky. The simplest \u2014 and also the most reliable \u2014 LTV calculations tell you what happened in the past: segment X made Y dollars per user. In a perfect world, that would be enough. 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