塔拉-迈耶
在最新一期的《Tenjin 101》节目中，我们采访了拥有十多年F2P游戏设计经验的游戏设计师Michal Tomčány。他在节目中向我们拆解了移动游戏中最关键、却常被误解的概念：单位经济模型（Unit Economics）。
Michal一直专注于F2P游戏的数值设计与底层逻辑，致力于将复杂知识转化为简单易懂、可即学即用的方法论，助力每位创作者打造商业成功的游戏产品。
在本文中，Michal将结合真实案例，深入拆解他所使用的核心框架，并分享可直接落地的实用工具。读完后你就能搞懂：
什么是单位经济模型？
一般来说，单位经济模型就是一套算清‘拉一个新用户到底划不划算’的商业逻辑。Michal干了十年F2P，总结得很直白：
“单位经济本质上就是一种商业模式。如果你将游戏开发视为一门生意，期望它能创造营收、维持生计……那么你就必须用真正的商业思维去经营它。”
在免费游戏（F2P）领域，单位经济模型的核心逻辑一脉相承，但其关注焦点从传统客户转向了新玩家与用户获取（UA）。它要算的，是单个玩家能给你带来多少价值，和拉来这个玩家要花多少成本之间的比例。只要看懂这个投入产出比，就能判断自己的作品能不能从“爱好”变成“生意”。
F2P含义：游戏里的F2P指什么？
在深入学习公式和计算前，先明确F2P的含义。F2P是Free-to-Play（免费游玩）的缩写，这种商业模式中，游戏可免费下载和试玩，收入来自应用内购买（IAP）和/或应用内广告（IAA）。
到2025年，免费模式（F2P）已经坐稳了移动游戏市场的主导位置， 贡献了超过70%的行业收入 ，原因很简单——玩家不用一次性掏钱，就能通过可选的内购（IAP）来提升游戏体验，想花就花，不花也能玩。
兴趣vs专业的主要区别
如今，做游戏入门门槛很低。Michal指出：
“谁都能做游戏……开发者光是做游戏、创作出作品，就能感到满足。有时候他们会说：‘好，那我就免费发布了。’这种情况，其实可以归为‘爱好’，而不是一门‘生意’。”
| ”为爱发电“开发 | F2P商业模式 |
| 为个人乐趣做游戏 | 以收入为核心设计 |
| 无收入模式就发布 | Data-driven monetization strategy |
| Hoping for the best – revenue approach | Scalable user acquisition |
| No structured business plan | Predictive metrics and forecasting |
How to Forecast Revenue: The Power of Predictive Analytics
Predictive analysis is essential for modeling your F2P game’s potential. The process involves making informed assumptions about key metrics, then refining them with real data as your game launches and grows.
Essential Metrics for F2P Unit Economics
To understand how to forecast revenue for your free-to-play game, you need to track these predictive metrics:
- Retention Rates – Percentage of players returning after 1, 7, and 30 days
- ARPDAU (Average Revenue Per Daily Active User) – How much revenue each daily player generates
- CPI (Cost Per Install) – How much you spend to acquire each player
- 转换率 (CVR) – Percentage of players who become payers
- ARPPU (Average Revenue Per Paying User) – How much each paying player spends
- LTV (Lifetime Value) – Total revenue expected from a player over their lifetime
Building Your Unit Economics Model: A Step-by-Step Framework
Step 1: Start With Your Revenue Goal
Rather than building a game and hoping for revenue, start by defining your target. Michal recommends beginning with a clear revenue objective:
“Revenue was the first where I was like, look, I’m going to model this, but just tell me what do you want to get out of it? As a developer, you’ll say, ‘Well, I want to make a game that generates a million dollars.’ Okay. So that would be our goal.”
Step 2: Use an LTV Calculator for Predictive Metrics
Revenue forecasts require calculations that account for player behavior over time. A LTV calculator helps you model:
- How retention rates affect long-term revenue
- Break-even points for user acquisition
- ROAS (Return on Ad Spend) projections
- Profit margins based on different scenarios
You can also take a look at Tenjin’s predicted LTV (pLTV) metric that forecasts LTV with 98% accuracy.
Example Modeling:
“This is a very aggressive, very hopeful model,” Michal notes. “Everything that we assume might be 100% wrong and we’re just going to dial it down, optimize it and change it so that we arrive at a model that is functional.”
Retention Assumptions:
- D1 Retention: 45%
- D7 Retention: 20%
- D30 Retention: 7%
Monetization:
- ARPDAU: $2.00
Conversion Rate: 5%
LTV (45 days): $12.60
User Acquisition Spend:
- Marketing Budget: $500,000
- Predicted Revenue: $1,200,000
- Predicted Profit: $759,000
45-Day ROAS: 251%
Step 3: Calculate What Payers Must Spend
Once you know your target revenue and conversion rate, work backwards to determine pricing. For example, a $1.2M annual revenue target with 5% conversion:
- Total payers needed: 5,000 (from 100,000 acquired players)
- ARPPU needed: $251/year
- Weekly spending per payer: $39
- Monthly purchases required: ~17 purchases
- Average purchase price: $9.99
“Those 5,000 people are going to have to generate all that revenue,” Michal explains. “This is how we plug the numbers. And the model tells us now, ‘Go into a game and set it up so that these purchases occur exactly how this model says.'”
Product-Market Fit: When Models Meet Reality
Understanding product-market fit is crucial for unit economics success. Your model might be mathematically sound, but if it doesn’t align with user and player behavior or market realities, it won’t work. In this section, we’ll cover some of the most common issues in free-to-play games.
Common Misalignments in F2P Games
- Pricing Mismatch
Michal analyzed a real shoot-’em-up game that offered ad removal for $3.99. The problem? Their model required:
- $12.60 LTV per player
- Only 5% conversion rate
- $9.99 average purchase price
“If everybody removes the ads at $3.99, we’re still down. We’re still not generating the money,” he explains. “That’s a clear indication where the model is informing you that you’re not going to be able to hit the goal that you want because your pricing is out of sync with the model.”
- Misalignment Between Teams
Make sure that the UA team is acquiring the right audience in a cost-effective way. That includes going more granular and sifting through data, and performing creative-level testing for qualified traffic.
On the other hand, the product team covers a different set of responsibilities. Their focus is creating user experience that monetizes according to the acquired players. This also includes matching prices according to their model requirements. The third major responsibility is creating content that hooks in players, driving up retention rates.
“What your UA team does and what your product team does needs to be synchronous,” Michal emphasizes. “That’s what distinguishes success versus not success. UA team and product team working towards the same goal.”
Troubleshooting: When Your Model Doesn’t Work
- If ARPDAU Is Too Low:
- Change monetization strategy – Add more purchase opportunities
- Adjust pricing – Increase IAP prices to match model requirements
- Improve conversion – Better offers, timing, and messaging
- If CPI Is Too High:
- Refine UA strategy – Target more qualified audiences
- Improve creatives – Better ad creative performance
- Change the game – Adjust gameplay to appeal to cheaper-to-acquire audiences
- If Retention Is Too Low:
- Fix unfit traffic – UA team may be acquiring wrong players
- Redesign core loops – Gameplay, content, or progression issues
- Adjust difficulty curves – Better onboarding and pacing
“If your retention is very low, that’s the trickiest part,” Michal warns. “Two ways to fix retention. You [could] have unfit traffic… or it is what it is…and [you] have to adjust the game.”
When Should You Build Your Unit Economics Model?
When it comes to timing, the right answer depends on your situation. Are you doing this professionally? Are you a hobby game developer who is curious about pivoting?
If you are thinking about, or already pursuing game development professionally, you should always start with your model beforehand. Start with defining your revenue targets. Then, move on to different methods of monetization or revenue streams that can be integrated into core gameplay. This helps avoid expensive and time consuming redesigns later on. It also ensures that anyone on your team (and beyond) is aligned from day one.
“If you’re in a position where you have to do this as a profession, then there’s no question—you begin with this,” Michal advises. “You don’t start a game and then shoehorn the game into this model.”
For those who are hobbyists, planning can be optional. If you’re a game designer for “fun” you can start with analyzing current or existing metrics. The next step is to identify gaps between your current and future/needed performance. You’re able to retrofit monetization and revenue carefully, but sometimes there could be significant changes involved.
Key Principles for F2P Unit Economics Success
1. Start High, Adjust Down
Don’t underprice your IAPs out of fear nobody will pay.
“A lot of issues that I see are developers—especially in free-to-play and casual and mobile games and the early indies—they price so low because they just do not believe there’s somebody who’s going to spend high,” Michal observes. “You should start high because later on you’re not going to be able to increase the prices.”
2. Remove Assumptions With Data
“The power of forecasting is that you’re a god that can assume everything,” Michal says. “But if we have things already existing—so for example we have a game—we’re going to measure some things. Then we’re going to plug those things already existing or data that we already have.”
3. Know When You’re Running a Business vs. Hobby
“This entire exercise tells you a lot about stuff that you need to know in order to turn the game into a business,” Michal concludes. “If you see this stuff and you’re like, ‘I don’t want to be doing this,’ then you’re probably in the wrong business.”
Pivoting From a Hobbyist Game Developer to a F2P Business
Understanding what unit economics is can transform your approach to free-to-play game development. Whether you’re a hobbyist, pro, or beginner just learning what F2P means in games, taking the time to model your unit economics is the difference between gambling and building better business.
“Make a lot of assumptions and remove those assumptions and you have a successful game.”
The framework is simple. The execution requires diligence. It all comes down to the effort of treating something as fun, then turning it into a business.
So, start with your revenue goals and model your metrics. Before you know it, you’ll be on the path to a profitable F2P business.
Want to dive deeper? Watch the video here.
